The whole concept of odds and probabilities is a subject that most beginner traders avoid, but is absolutely one of every professional trader’s secrets for success. Trading the financial markets is all about managing risk, nothing is 100% accurate or works 100% of the time. There is always a certain chance, certain odds, certain probability that a trade will work or wont work. Even if a trading system generates 99% chance of success, there is still that 1% chance of failure. Nothing in trading is black or white, everything is somewhere in the gray. It is the job of the trader to determine how gray the trade is, what are odds of success. The trader can then adjust their trading based on the probability of the specific trade and the probability of the trading system that he uses. By figuring out exact odds of success, the trader can figure out his edge and maintain it.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
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